Baragar Projections for the Phase Three Proposed Catchments

The Baragar report provides the future projections for the most recent version of the proposed catchments.  These catchments are those that were presented at the Special Board Meeting on June 19, 2019 and in the Phase 3 Summary Report.

The report is based on the Baragar “classic” methodology​ which involves analysis of CRA data and applying assumptions based on previous historical migration and participation patterns to the specific neighbourhoods.

The Boundary Review Team regards this projection as the most reliable and accurate projection that we can obtain, as Baragar is a well-established company that provides population and enrolment data to many school districts.

The numbers provided under the columns “Actual” show the number of students that Baragar projects would attend the prospective schools had the new catchments been applied to proposed catchments in past years; it is not intended to show the number of students currently at the school.

Excluded from the District totals are all International Student Program numbers and all students who attend from out-of-district.  At September 28, 2018 there were 1037 International Student Program students and 859 out-of-district students attending SD61 schools, with the majority of these students at our Secondary Schools.  The exclusion of these students from this report is not intended to imply that they would not be able to attend a SD61 school.  The report is intended to show where SD61 students reside and the relative ability of their neighbourhood school to accommodate in-catchment students.  The District will continue to provide opportunity for students transfer and will apply the student enrolment priorities to students wishing to attend a school outside of their catchment.

Baragar Projections for the Phase Three Proposed Catchments



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